Brendan Hoban: Vague promises don’t wash with Irish voters 

Western People 18.6.2024  

In the end the results of the local and European elections were all about trust. Trust ­– and the lack of it. A sub-text is how sophisticated Irish voters are, when the chips are down. A few years before a general election, the Irish electorate could afford to give the impression of flirting with Sinn Féin but as election time drew near the consistent figure of around 35% of voters supporting Sinn Féin (SF) began to fray. Fine Gael (FG) and Fianna Fáil (FF), sometimes stuck at 20% and lower, created the false impression that SF’s time had come. (So much for polls).

The overall message of the recent vote is that in difficult times those with a reputation for stability, responsibility and competence – the reliable rather than the distracting – will invariably attract the support of the middle ground of people. The cacophony of sound that attended the turnaround was the flock of chickens coming home to roost and the slow and the extended implosion of the SF bubble. Even though it looked for some time as if all the SF Christmases were coming together, when it mattered the centre-ground of Irish political life was reclaimed by the established parties.

Instead of the long predicted ‘coronation’ of Mary Lou swanning triumphantly into Leinster House to occupy An Taoiseach’s seat with the serried ranks of SF deputies lined up behind her, the defining image of the day was the unsmiling figure of Mary Lou entering the RDS with few SF supporters in sight to provide the usual royal welcome. It was, as Miriam Lord in the Irish Times described it, ‘like the arrival of the chief mourner – unfamiliar territory for the SF leader more used to a noisy scrum of jubilant supporters and a thicket of waving Tricolours to speed her path to the microphones’. And the day was capped by the withering comment of Fianna Fáil TD, Jennifer Carroll, that ‘the only SF person having a good day is Jonathon Dowdall in Portlaoise Prison who stuck his house on the market for €800,000’.

In the end, the reasons for the collapse were predictable enough. If you promise everyone everything it may be popular for a time and provide an expected bounce in the opinion polls but eventually it has a limited temporary effect. Including a growing scepticism and eventually distrust. As is continually pointed out by the voices of experience, if something is too good to be true it usually isn’t.

It’s what happens when customers decide that what’s for sale is not worth buying because of

distrust in the dodgy reputation of the retailer.

It’s what happens when illusion and delusion conspire to unmask what is doable and deliverable and what isn’t.

It’s what happens when (as in America) a lethal cocktail of the pliable and the gullible conspire to believe in everything and anything and anyone, regardless of common sense and good reason.

It’s what happens when political parties and leaders inhabit a fairytale Alice in Wonderland dreamland, where entitlement and preference are taken for granted and they imagine that the rules of politics do not apply to them.

It’s what happens when Mary Lou can’t find a way to say that she was sorry for the part the republican movement played in the deaths, injuries, strife and breakdown of the Troubles that have yielded such a divisive and embittered legacy. 

It’s what happens, when trust wears thin.

SF are right when they warn that voting in local and European elections is not the same as in a general election. That’s the given wisdom of political anoraks. But, in this instance, the narrow gap in time to the impending general election has focussed the minds on reality rather than on dreams, on the harsh lessons of history rather than on dangerous ideologies and, especially, on whom the Irish electorate is prepared to trust with their future. Now is not a time to experiment with possibilities or to test interesting alternatives.

We have moved back into what, in GAA-speak, is called ‘senior hurling’. The heavy hitters are back in town.

It will be a hard road back for SF to the dizzying heights of recent years when the mirage of highs of 35% support created huge expectation. The results of the two elections indicate a clear conclusion that SF will have to return to ground-level and ground-hurling to unashamedly critique their performance.

While those familiar with this column will understand why SF might not welcome my advice, I don’t hesitate to offer it nonetheless.

So here, from my limited perspective, at a minimum, is what SF needs to do. Forget the populist agenda. End the flip-flopping on positions by changing policy depending on which way the wind is blowing. Be aware of what is beyond what people, no matter how gullible, will not regard as credible. Accept that an educated electorate will not be fooled by dodgy arithmetic. Stop pretending that a united Ireland is inevitable, inexpensive and non-threatening in its possible repercussions. Realise that a personal history of killing, maiming and bombing confers a special status on no one. Stop attending the funerals of murderers of members of An Garda Síochána on the basis that they were freedom fighters that deserve paramilitary-style obsequies – and, especially, not during a lethal pandemic. Be transparent about decision-making by ending the control of the party through meetings behind closed doors.

While FF and FG are giving themselves marks for the present turnaround – FF praising Micheál Martin and FG praising the foresight of Leo Varadkar and the leadership of Simon Harris – it is due in great measure to an electorate, adult and sophisticated in its requirements, who have simply refused to accept what SF are offering. There comes a point beyond which trust evaporates.

It’s a lesson that SF seems extraordinarily reluctant to learn.

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