Brendan Hoban: Vague promises don’t wash with Irish voters 

Western People 18.6.2024  

In the end the results of the local and European elections were all about trust. Trust ­– and the lack of it. A sub-text is how sophisticated Irish voters are, when the chips are down. A few years before a general election, the Irish electorate could afford to give the impression of flirting with Sinn Féin but as election time drew near the consistent figure of around 35% of voters supporting Sinn Féin (SF) began to fray. Fine Gael (FG) and Fianna Fáil (FF), sometimes stuck at 20% and lower, created the false impression that SF’s time had come. (So much for polls).

The overall message of the recent vote is that in difficult times those with a reputation for stability, responsibility and competence – the reliable rather than the distracting – will invariably attract the support of the middle ground of people. The cacophony of sound that attended the turnaround was the flock of chickens coming home to roost and the slow and the extended implosion of the SF bubble. Even though it looked for some time as if all the SF Christmases were coming together, when it mattered the centre-ground of Irish political life was reclaimed by the established parties.

Instead of the long predicted ‘coronation’ of Mary Lou swanning triumphantly into Leinster House to occupy An Taoiseach’s seat with the serried ranks of SF deputies lined up behind her, the defining image of the day was the unsmiling figure of Mary Lou entering the RDS with few SF supporters in sight to provide the usual royal welcome. It was, as Miriam Lord in the Irish Times described it, ‘like the arrival of the chief mourner – unfamiliar territory for the SF leader more used to a noisy scrum of jubilant supporters and a thicket of waving Tricolours to speed her path to the microphones’. And the day was capped by the withering comment of Fianna Fáil TD, Jennifer Carroll, that ‘the only SF person having a good day is Jonathon Dowdall in Portlaoise Prison who stuck his house on the market for €800,000’.

In the end, the reasons for the collapse were predictable enough. If you promise everyone everything it may be popular for a time and provide an expected bounce in the opinion polls but eventually it has a limited temporary effect. Including a growing scepticism and eventually distrust. As is continually pointed out by the voices of experience, if something is too good to be true it usually isn’t.

It’s what happens when customers decide that what’s for sale is not worth buying because of

distrust in the dodgy reputation of the retailer.

It’s what happens when illusion and delusion conspire to unmask what is doable and deliverable and what isn’t.

It’s what happens when (as in America) a lethal cocktail of the pliable and the gullible conspire to believe in everything and anything and anyone, regardless of common sense and good reason.

It’s what happens when political parties and leaders inhabit a fairytale Alice in Wonderland dreamland, where entitlement and preference are taken for granted and they imagine that the rules of politics do not apply to them.

It’s what happens when Mary Lou can’t find a way to say that she was sorry for the part the republican movement played in the deaths, injuries, strife and breakdown of the Troubles that have yielded such a divisive and embittered legacy. 

It’s what happens, when trust wears thin.

SF are right when they warn that voting in local and European elections is not the same as in a general election. That’s the given wisdom of political anoraks. But, in this instance, the narrow gap in time to the impending general election has focussed the minds on reality rather than on dreams, on the harsh lessons of history rather than on dangerous ideologies and, especially, on whom the Irish electorate is prepared to trust with their future. Now is not a time to experiment with possibilities or to test interesting alternatives.

We have moved back into what, in GAA-speak, is called ‘senior hurling’. The heavy hitters are back in town.

It will be a hard road back for SF to the dizzying heights of recent years when the mirage of highs of 35% support created huge expectation. The results of the two elections indicate a clear conclusion that SF will have to return to ground-level and ground-hurling to unashamedly critique their performance.

While those familiar with this column will understand why SF might not welcome my advice, I don’t hesitate to offer it nonetheless.

So here, from my limited perspective, at a minimum, is what SF needs to do. Forget the populist agenda. End the flip-flopping on positions by changing policy depending on which way the wind is blowing. Be aware of what is beyond what people, no matter how gullible, will not regard as credible. Accept that an educated electorate will not be fooled by dodgy arithmetic. Stop pretending that a united Ireland is inevitable, inexpensive and non-threatening in its possible repercussions. Realise that a personal history of killing, maiming and bombing confers a special status on no one. Stop attending the funerals of murderers of members of An Garda Síochána on the basis that they were freedom fighters that deserve paramilitary-style obsequies – and, especially, not during a lethal pandemic. Be transparent about decision-making by ending the control of the party through meetings behind closed doors.

While FF and FG are giving themselves marks for the present turnaround – FF praising Micheál Martin and FG praising the foresight of Leo Varadkar and the leadership of Simon Harris – it is due in great measure to an electorate, adult and sophisticated in its requirements, who have simply refused to accept what SF are offering. There comes a point beyond which trust evaporates.

It’s a lesson that SF seems extraordinarily reluctant to learn.

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11 Comments

  1. Joe O'Leary says:

    As meretricious as G. Adams’ smile, the polls dissolve at the touch of reality. “It’s what happens when Mary Lou can’t find a way to say that she was sorry for the part the republican movement played in the deaths, injuries, strife and breakdown of the Troubles that have yielded such a divisive and embittered legacy.” They can never shake off that legacy, and as along as Ireland remembers those horrors, Ireland partitioned will never be reunited. We may hope that the USA too will show sanity when it comes to actual votes. (Let’s hope Biden slays the blob tomorrow.)

  2. Joe O'Leary says:

    Oh dear, Biden himself became the blob. It’s not too late to change horses and put forward a young, smart, articulate candidate such as Pete Buttigieg.

    1. Aileen Walshe says:

      Yes I pray that 25th amendment of the U.S constitution will be invoked to have Biden resign now and let the VP take over. Its not fair on the poor man or the rest of us.

  3. Joe O'Leary says:

    Unfortunately, Dem politicians, including the first couple, are investing heavily in denialism, refusing to look at the facts. Dem bloggers like Brian Cohen, and “Occupy Democrats” are shaming anyone who does not join in a “we love, Joe, Yes he can!” chant — and in the process they are beginning to sound just like the Maga cultists.

  4. Pat Savage says:

    While it is healthy and quite correct to comment, debate and observe politics either near home or far away, but it would also help Catholics to find faith again if certain priests like politicians avoided the following:

    “If you promise everyone everything it may be popular for a time and provide an expected bounce in the opinion polls but eventually it has a limited temporary effect”;

    “Forget the populist agenda”;

    I would refer any one in doubt to listen back to the sermon given by the primate A/B Eamonn Martin at Knock last Saturday on the feast day of Ss Peter and Paul at Knock Shrine.

    It’s been a while since one heard a shepherd/priest speak truly honestly with sensitivity but speak the truth if any one has the ears to hear.

  5. Joe O'Leary says:

    Disillusionment is a very educative and eye-opening thing. Biden’s performance was not only an epiphany into his mental decline but also into the web of deceit and self-deceit among those who were covering it up and feeding false reassurances to so many. Post-debate there are many Dem politicians who are losing their reputation for integrity as they continue to feed us opportune lies: Nancy Pelosi, Al Sharpton, Raphael Warnock, Hakeem Jeffries, Jim Clyburn, Jasmine Crocket (though her upbeat declarations may represent a sincere superficiality), Michael Steele, Eric Swalwell (with his rubbishy mantra “Joe jobs”) — though her upbeat declarations may represent a sincere superficiality). Many cocky pundits are now shown up as blinded by ideology (Keith Olbermann, Brian Tyler Cohen, “Occupy Democrats”), while those who resist the BLUE MAGA denialism and point out what is needed (Cenk Uygur, John Iadorola, Tim Miller, David Plouffe, Rachel Maddow, Elex Michaelson) risk being dropped by fellow Dems. Polls show 72% of voters think Biden is mentally unqualified to continue as President, and show him losing in all seven swing states on which the election will hinge.

    Pat Savage, I cannot make out what you find objectionable in the two sentences you quote from Brendan, or what the connection is with “helping Catholics find faith”.

  6. Pat savage says:

    I think it’s quite obvious, but i apologise for lack of clarity, we have certain priests in this country concerned about politicians in a country over 3000 miles away and will write articles on the agendas that’s going on there and that’s fine and I don’t just mean the particular writer of this article but many others in their parish newsletters.

    Yet their silence on the political agenda in this country is so silent it’s almost deafness. Is it a fear of been rejected or is it a fear of upsetting the apple cart? I suspect the first. An example of this is the push on the introduction of legislation around surrogacy that has been rushed through and the silence from the pulpit or the typewriter is frightening.

    This year alone Pope Francis called for a global surrogacy ban, stating, “I deem deplorable the practice of so-called surrogate motherhood, which represents a grave violation of the dignity of the woman and the child, based on the exploitation of situations of the mother’s material needs”.

    So my point people are crying out for something and sadly as a church, and I include my self as one, we have let them down either because all we have to offer is wish washy huggy PC Catholicism with no foundation to support their journey.

  7. Joe O'Leary says:

    Pat, I was not able to access the link to Archbishop Martin’s sermon, which would have no doubt clarified the surrogacy connection. The problem is we have no culture of open discussion and dialogue on such issues in our clerical church. This was very obvious in episcopal interventions in the referendums of 2015 and 2018. https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/archbishop-criticised-for-deeply-offensive-comments-about-abortion-safe-access-zones-1564493.html#:~:text=Archbishop%20Martin%20said%3A%20%22What%20next,life%20of%20her%20unborn%20child%3F%22 https://associationofcatholicpriests.ie/the-marriage-referendum-archbishop-diarmuid-martin-explains-why-he-is-voting-no-fr-padraig-standun-explains-why-he-will-be-voting-yes I think surrogacy is an awful idea but I have no knowledge or experience of it, and if I had I would surely discover that it is very complex.

  8. Joe O'Leary says:

    The recent document Dignitas infinita mentions surrogacy:

    48. The Church also takes a stand against the practice of surrogacy, through which the immensely worthy child becomes a mere object. On this point, Pope Francis’s words have a singular clarity: “The path to peace calls for respect for life, for every human life, starting with the life of the unborn child in the mother’s womb, which cannot be suppressed or turned into an object of trafficking. In this regard, I deem deplorable the practice of so-called surrogate motherhood, which represents a grave violation of the dignity of the woman and the child, based on the exploitation of situations of the mother’s material needs. A child is always a gift and never the basis of a commercial contract. Consequently, I express my hope for an effort by the international community to prohibit this practice universally.”[92]

    49. First and foremost, the practice of surrogacy violates the dignity of the child. Indeed, every child possesses an intangible dignity that is clearly expressed—albeit in a unique and differentiated way—at every stage of his or her life: from the moment of conception, at birth, growing up as a boy or girl, and becoming an adult. Because of this unalienable dignity, the child has the right to have a fully human (and not artificially induced) origin and to receive the gift of a life that manifests both the dignity of the giver and that of the receiver. Moreover, acknowledging the dignity of the human person also entails recognizing every dimension of the dignity of the conjugal union and of human procreation. Considering this, the legitimate desire to have a child cannot be transformed into a “right to a child” that fails to respect the dignity of that child as the recipient of the gift of life.[93]

    50. Surrogacy also violates the dignity of the woman, whether she is coerced into it or chooses to subject herself to it freely. For, in this practice, the woman is detached from the child growing in her and becomes a mere means subservient to the arbitrary gain or desire of others. This contrasts in every way with the fundamental dignity of every human being and with each person’s right to be recognized always individually and never as an instrument for another.

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